Go beyond payroll and rent: include software, taxes, contractor overages, ad tests, refunds, and the timing of cash receipts. Map payment cycles and seasonal swings so your forecast reflects reality, not optimism dressed as numbers.
Target at least twelve months of runway, eighteen if your sales cycle is long. This buffer buys learning time and prevents desperate decisions. If you dip below, trigger preplanned cuts instead of scrambling under pressure.
Post your top three assumptions driving runway—growth rate, hiring pace, and margin. We’ll stress-test them together in comments. Want a lightweight runway calculator? Subscribe, and we’ll send a customizable template you can adapt immediately.
Include ad spend, creative, tools, discounts, and the team hours required to operate campaigns. If your CAC ignores time, it flatters your model. Reality-based CAC prevents over-scaling channels that silently burn cash.
Assume conservative growth and steady churn. Approve spend for essentials tied to milestones. Revisit projections monthly. If gross margin dips or sales cycle lengthens, automatically revert to the bear plan without committee drama.
Bear Case: Hard Mode Toolkit
Predefine cuts, renegotiation targets, and hiring freezes. Alert vendors early, seek discounts, and reduce channel risk by prioritizing owned audiences. Your budget becomes a calm script, not a crisis reaction, when luck turns.
Blitz Case: Controlled Acceleration
If payback shortens and retention strengthens, throttle spend with caps and weekly review. Scale what is proven, not merely trending. Comment with your scale signal, and we’ll share a simple blitz budget guardrail template.
Milestone-Based Budgeting
Release spend in tranches tied to proof—activation lift, retention cohorts, or qualified pipeline. When proof arrives, unlock the next tranche. This converts fundraising optimism into disciplined, compounding progress.
Non-Dilutive Options and Tradeoffs
Evaluate revenue-based financing, grants, and prepayments. They can protect ownership but demand predictable cash flows and margin. Model covenants inside your budget so surprises never dictate product or hiring choices.
Question: What Would You Fund First?
If you had one extra dollar this quarter, where would it go—activation, retention, or acquisition? Comment with your answer and why. Subscribe to see how other founders allocate those scarce, high-impact dollars.